Utyalo-mali lwe-AI luyanda: Intengiso yezixhobo zokuvelisa i-Semiconductor (Chip) yeHlabathi kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngo-2025.
Ngenxa yotyalo-mali oluqinileyo kubukrelekrele bokwenziwa, ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo zokwenza i-semiconductor (iitshiphusi) kwihlabathi jikelele kulindeleke ukuba kufikelelwe kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngo-2025. Kulindeleke ukuba ukuthengiswa kuqhubeke kukhula kwaye kubeke iirekhodi ezintsha kwiminyaka emibini ezayo (2026-2027).
Ngomhla we-16 kweyoMnga, iSemiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) ikhuphe ingxelo yayo yemarike yezixhobo zetshiphu kwihlabathi kwiSEMICON Japan 2025. Le ngxelo iqikelela ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2025, intengiso yezixhobo zetshiphu kwihlabathi (iimveliso ezintsha) iya kunyuka nge-13.7% unyaka nonyaka, ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu le-US $133 yeebhiliyoni. Ngaphezu koko, kulindeleke ukuba intengiso iqhubeke nokukhula kwiminyaka emibini ezayo, ifikelele kwi-US $145 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2026 kunye ne-US $156 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2027, iqhubeka nokuphula iirekhodi zembali.
I-SEMI ithi eyona nto iphambili ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kwintengiso yezixhobo zeetship ivela kutyalo-mali kwi-logic ephucukileyo, imemori, kunye nobuchwepheshe bokupakisha obuphambili obunxulumene nobukrelekrele bokwenziwa.
I-CEO ye-SEMI u-Ajit Manocha uthe, "Ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo zeetshiphu kwihlabathi liphela kuqinile, kwaye iinkqubo ze-front-end kunye ne-back-end kulindeleke ukuba zikhule kunyaka wesithathu ngokulandelelana, kwaye intengiso kulindeleke ukuba idlule i-$150 yeebhiliyoni okokuqala ngo-2027. Emva kwengxelo yethu yaphakathi konyaka ekhutshwe ngoJulayi, sinyuse uqikelelo lwethu lokuthengiswa kwezixhobo zeetshiphu ngenxa yotyalo-mali olusebenzayo kunolulindelweyo ekuxhaseni imfuno ye-AI."
I-SEMI iceba ukuba intengiso yezixhobo zokwenza izinto kwihlabathi liphela (izixhobo zokwenza izinto ezicociweyo; i-WFE) ikhule nge-11.0% unyaka nonyaka ukuya kwi-$115.7 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2025, ukusuka kwingqikelelo ephakathi konyaka ye-$110.8 yeebhiliyoni kwaye idlule kwingqikelelo ka-2024 ye-$104 yeebhiliyoni, ibeka irekhodi elitsha. Uhlaziyo oluphezulu lwengqikelelo yokuthengisa ye-WFE lubonisa ngokuyintloko ukunyuka okungalindelekanga kotyalo-mali lwe-DRAM kunye ne-HBM oluqhutywa yimfuno yokubala i-AI, kunye negalelo elikhulu elivela ekwandiseni amandla eTshayina okuqhubekayo. Iqhutywa yimfuno ekhulayo ye-logic kunye nememori ephucukileyo, intengiso yehlabathi ye-WFE kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-9.0% ngo-2026 kwaye inyuke nge-7.3% ngo-2027, ifikelele kwi-$135.2 yeebhiliyoni.
I-SEMI ibonisa ukuba iTshayina, iTaiwan, kunye neSouth Korea kulindeleke ukuba zihlale ziphezulu kubathengi bezixhobo zetshiphusi ngo-2027. Ngexesha lokuqikelela (ukuya kuthi ga ku-2027), iTshayina kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nokutyala imali kwiinkqubo ezivuthiweyo kunye neendawo ezithile eziphambili ukuze igcine indawo yayo ephambili; nangona kunjalo, ukukhula kulindeleke ukuba kucothe emva ko-2026, kunye nentengiso ehla kancinci kancinci. ETaiwan, utyalo-mali olukhulu ekwandiseni amandla emveliso asemgangathweni kulindeleke ukuba luqhubeke kude kube ngu-2025. EMzantsi Korea, utyalo-mali olukhulu kubuchwepheshe bememori obuphambili, kuquka ne-HBM, luya kuxhasa ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo.
Kweminye imimandla, kulindeleke ukuba utyalo-mali lunyuke ngo-2026 nango-2027 ngenxa yezibonelelo zikarhulumente, imizamo yokuvelisa iimveliso zasekhaya, kunye nokwanda kwamandla emveliso yeemveliso ezikhethekileyo.
I-Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) ikhuphe ingxelo ngoDisemba 2 isithi, ngokwesibikezelo samva nje esivela kwi-World Semiconductor Trade System (WSTS), utyalo-mali kwiziko ledatha yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa luya kuba ngumqhubi oyintloko, luqhubele phambili ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwemfuno yememori, ii-GPU, kunye nezinye iitships ze-logic. Ke ngoko, ukuthengiswa kwee-semiconductor kwihlabathi jikelele kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke nge-26.3% unyaka nonyaka ukufikelela kwi-$975.46 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2026, kusondela uphawu lwe-$1 trillion kwaye luphawule irekhodi elitsha eliphezulu kunyaka wesithathu ngokulandelelana.
Ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor zaseJapan kuyaqhubeka nokufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo zokwenza i-semiconductor eJapan kusaqhubeka kuqinile, njengoko intengiso ka-Okthobha ka-2025 idlule i-400 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwinyanga ye-12 ilandelelana, nto leyo ebeka irekhodi elitsha kwixesha elifanayo. Ngenxa yoku, izabelo zeenkampani zezixhobo ze-chip zaseJapan zinyuke kakhulu namhlanje.
Ngokutsho kweYahoo Finance, ukusukela ngentsimbi ye-9:20 kusasa ngexesha laseTaipei ngomhla wama-27, izabelo zaseTokyo Electron (TEL) zinyuke nge-2.60%, izabelo ze-Advantest (umenzi wezixhobo zokuvavanya) zinyuke nge-4.34%, kwaye izabelo zeKokosai (umenzi wezixhobo zokufaka ifilimu encinci) zinyuke nge-5.16%.
Idatha ekhutshwe yi-Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) ngomhla wama-26 ibonise ukuba ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor zaseJapan (kuquka ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, umndilili ohambayo weenyanga ezi-3) kufikelele kwi-413.876 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngo-Okthobha ka-2025, ukunyuka kwe-7.3% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, okuphawula inyanga yama-22 yokukhula ngokulandelelana. Intengiso yenyanga idlule kwi-300 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwiinyanga ezingama-24 ezilandelelanayo kunye ne-400 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezilandelelanayo, nto leyo ebeka irekhodi elitsha kuloo nyanga.
Intengiso yehle nge-2.5% xa ithelekiswa nenyanga ephelileyo (ngoSeptemba 2025), nto leyo ephawula ukwehla kwesibini kwiinyanga ezintathu.
Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha ka-2025, ukuthengiswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor eJapan kufikelele kwi-4.214 trillion yen, ukunyuka kwe-17.5% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, kudlula kakhulu irekhodi lembali le-3.586 trillion yen elalimiselwe ngo-2024.
Isabelo semarike yehlabathi saseJapan sezixhobo ze-semiconductor (ngokwengeniso yentengiso) sifikelele kwi-30%, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ibe yimarike yesibini ngobukhulu kwihlabathi emva kwe-United States.
Ngomhla wama-31 kuOkthobha, iTokyo Telecom (TEL) yabhengeza iziphumo zayo zemali, isithi ngenxa yokusebenza okungcono kunokuba bekulindelwe, inkampani inyuse umgomo wayo wengeniso edibeneyo kunyaka-mali ka-2025 (ngo-Epreli 2025 ukuya kuMatshi 2026) ukusuka kwi-¥2.35 trillion ngoJulayi ukuya kwi-¥2.38 trillion. Umgomo wenzuzo yokusebenza edibeneyo unyuselwe ukusuka kwi-¥570 billion ukuya kwi-¥586 billion, kwaye umgomo wenzuzo edibeneyo ukusuka kwi-¥444 billion ukuya kwi-¥488 billion.
Ngomhla wesi-3 kuJulayi, i-SEAJ ikhuphe ingxelo yesimo sezulu ebonisa ukuba ngenxa yemfuno enamandla yee-GPU kunye nee-HBM ezivela kwiiseva ze-AI, i-TSMC ye-Taiwan's advanced semiconductor foundry iza kuqalisa ukuvelisa ngobuninzi iitships ze-2nm, nto leyo eqhuba utyalo-mali olongezelelekileyo kubuchwepheshe be-2nm. Ngaphezu koko, utyalo-mali lwaseMzantsi Korea kwi-DRAM/HBM nalo luyakhula. Ke ngoko, uqikelelo lokuthengiswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor zaseJapan (ngokubhekiselele kwintengiso yeenkampani zaseJapan ngaphakathi nangaphandle) kunyaka-mali ka-2025 (u-Epreli 2025 ukuya kuMatshi 2026) luhlaziywe ukusuka kuqikelelo lwangaphambili lwe-4.659 trillion yen ukuya kwi-4.8634 trillion yen, ukunyuka kwe-2.0% xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka-mali ka-2024, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba lufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lonyaka wesibini ngokulandelelana.
Ixesha leposi: Disemba-22-2025