Imfuno eyahlukeneyo kunye nemveliso yokupakisha okuphucukileyo kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo iqhuba ubungakanani bemarike yayo ukusuka kwi-$38 yeebhiliyoni ukuya kwi-$79 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2030. Olu kukhula lukhuthazwa ziimfuno kunye nemingeni eyahlukeneyo, kodwa lugcina umkhwa oqhubekayo wokunyuka. Olu kuguquguquka luvumela ukupakisha okuphucukileyo ukuba kuqhubeke nokuvelisa izinto ezintsha kunye nokuziqhelanisa okuqhubekayo, ukuhlangabezana neemfuno ezithile zeemarike ezahlukeneyo ngokwemveliso, iimfuno zobugcisa, kunye namaxabiso aphakathi okuthengisa.
Nangona kunjalo, olu kuguquguquka lukwabeka umngcipheko kwishishini lokupakisha eliphambili xa iimarike ezithile zijongene nokwehla okanye ukuguquguquka. Ngo-2024, ukupakisha okuphambili kuya kuzuza ekukhuleni ngokukhawuleza kwemarike yeziko ledatha, ngelixa ukubuyiselwa kweemarike ezinkulu ezifana neeselfowuni kuhamba kancinci.
Ikhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla eliphambili lelinye lamacandelo angaphantsi anamandla kakhulu kwikhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla ye-semiconductor yehlabathi. Oku kubangelwa kukubandakanyeka kweemodeli ezahlukeneyo zoshishino ngaphaya kwe-OSAT yendabuko (i-Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), ukubaluleka kwezopolitiko kwezoqoqosho kweli shishini, kunye nendima yalo ebalulekileyo kwiimveliso ezisebenza kakuhle.
Unyaka ngamnye uza nemida yawo eguqula imeko yenkqubo yokuhambisa upakisho oluphambili. Ngowama-2024, izinto ezininzi eziphambili zichaphazela olu tshintsho: imida yomthamo, imingeni yesivuno, izixhobo ezintsha nezixhobo, iimfuno zenkcitho yemali, imigaqo kunye namanyathelo ezopolitiko, imfuno enkulu kwiimarike ezithile, imigangatho eguqukayo, abatsha abangenayo, kunye nokuguquguquka kwezixhobo ezikrwada.
Kuye kwavela imibutho emininzi emitsha ukuze kujongwane nemingeni yokubonelela ngeenkonzo ngokubambisana nangokukhawuleza. Ubuchwepheshe obuphambili bokupakisha bunikwa ilayisenisi kwabanye abathathi-nxaxheba ukuxhasa utshintsho olugudileyo kwiimodeli ezintsha zoshishino kunye nokujongana nemida yomthamo. Ukulungiswa kweetships kugxininiswa ngakumbi ukukhuthaza usetyenziso olubanzi lweetships, ukuphonononga iimarike ezintsha, kunye nokunciphisa umthwalo wotyalo-mali lomntu ngamnye. Ngowama-2024, amazwe amatsha, iinkampani, izibonelelo, kunye nemigca yovavanyo ziqala ukuzibophelela ekupakisheni okuphucukileyo—umkhwa oza kuqhubeka ukuya kutsho ngowama-2025.
Ukupakisha okuphucukileyo akukafikeleli kumlinganiselo wetekhnoloji. Phakathi kowama-2024 nowama-2025, ukupakisha okuphucukileyo kufikelela kwimpumelelo enkulu, kwaye ipotifoliyo yetekhnoloji iyakhula ukuze ibandakanye iinguqulelo ezintsha eziqinileyo zobuchwepheshe kunye namaqonga e-AP akhoyo, njenge-EMIB kunye ne-Foveros yesizukulwana samva nje se-Intel. Ukupakisha kweenkqubo ze-CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) nako kufumana ingqalelo kushishino, kunye nobuchwepheshe obutsha obuphuhliswayo ukutsala abathengi kunye nokwandisa imveliso.
Ii-substrates zesekethe ezihlanganisiweyo eziphambili zimele elinye ishishini elinxulumene ngokusondeleyo, elabelana ngemephu yendlela, imigaqo yoyilo lwentsebenziswano, kunye neemfuno zezixhobo kunye nokupakisha okuphucukileyo.
Ukongeza kwezi teknoloji ziphambili, iindlela ezininzi "ezingabonakaliyo zamandla" ziqhuba ukwahlukahluka kunye nobuchule bokupakisha okuphucukileyo: izisombululo zokuhambisa umbane, ubuchwepheshe bokufaka, ulawulo lobushushu, izixhobo ezintsha (ezifana neglasi kunye nezinto eziphilayo zesizukulwana esilandelayo), unxibelelwano oluphucukileyo, kunye neefomathi zezixhobo/izixhobo ezintsha. Ukusuka kwii-elektroniki eziphathwayo kunye nezabathengi ukuya kumaziko edatha akrelekrele okwenziwa, ukupakisha okuphucukileyo kulungisa ubuchwepheshe bayo ukuze buhlangabezane neemfuno zemarike nganye, okuvumela iimveliso zayo zesizukulwana esilandelayo ukuba nazo zanelise iimfuno zemarike.
Imakethi yokupakisha ephezulu kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-$8 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2024, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba idlule kwi-$28 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2030, nto leyo ebonisa izinga lokukhula konyaka elihlanganisiweyo (CAGR) le-23% ukusuka ngo-2024 ukuya ku-2030. Ngokuphathelele iimakethi zokugqibela, imakethi yokupakisha ephezulu kakhulu "yonxibelelwano kunye neziseko zophuhliso," evelise ngaphezulu kwe-67% yengeniso ngo-2024. Ilandela ngokusondeleyo "imakethi yeselula kunye nabathengi," eyimakethi ekhula ngokukhawuleza ene-CAGR ye-50%.
Ngokuphathelele iiyunithi zokupakisha, ukupakisha okuphezulu kulindeleke ukuba kubone i-CAGR engama-33% ukusuka ngo-2024 ukuya ku-2030, inyuke ukusuka kwiiyunithi ezimalunga ne-1 yezigidigidi ngo-2024 ukuya kwiiyunithi ezingaphezu kwe-5 yezigidigidi ngo-2030. Olu kukhula lubalulekileyo lubangelwa yimfuno efanelekileyo yokupakisha okuphezulu, kwaye ixabiso eliphakathi lokuthengisa liphezulu kakhulu xa lithelekiswa nokupakisha okungaphucukanga kangako, okuqhutywa kukutshintsha kwexabiso ukusuka kwicala langaphambili ukuya kwelangasemva ngenxa yamaqonga e-2.5D kunye ne-3D.
Imemori ehlanganisiweyo ye-3D (i-HBM, i-3DS, i-3D NAND, kunye ne-CBA DRAM) yeyona inegalelo elikhulu, kulindeleke ukuba ithathe ngaphezulu kwe-70% yesabelo semarike ngo-2029. Amaqonga akhula ngokukhawuleza aquka i-CBA DRAM, i-3D SoC, ii-interposers ze-Si ezisebenzayo, ii-3D NAND stacks, kunye nee-embedded Si bridges.
Imiqobo yokungena kwikhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla yokupakisha ephezulu iya isanda, apho ii-wafer foundries ezinkulu kunye nee-IDM ziphazamisa intsimi yokupakisha ephucukileyo ngezakhono zazo zangaphambili. Ukwamkelwa kwetekhnoloji yokubopha exutyiweyo kwenza imeko ibe nzima ngakumbi kubathengisi be-OSAT, njengoko kuphela abo banamandla e-wafer fab kunye nezixhobo ezaneleyo abanokumelana nelahleko enkulu yesivuno kunye notyalo-mali olukhulu.
Ngowama-2024, abavelisi beememori abamelwe yiYangtze Memory Technologies, iSamsung, iSK Hynix, kunye neMicron baya kulawula, bephethe i-54% yemarike yokupakisha ephezulu, njengoko imemori ehlanganisiweyo ye-3D idlula amanye amaqonga ngokwengeniso, imveliso yeyunithi, kunye nemveliso ye-wafer. Enyanisweni, umthamo wokuthengwa kweememori udlula kakhulu lowo wokupakisha okunengqiqo. I-TSMC ikhokela ngesabelo semarike se-35%, ilandelwa ngokusondeleyo yiYangtze Memory Technologies ene-20% yemarike yonke. Abatsha abasandula ukungena njengeKioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, kunye neSamsung kulindeleke ukuba bangene kwimarike ye-3D NAND ngokukhawuleza, befumana isabelo semarike. I-Samsung ikwindawo yesithathu ngesabelo se-16%, ilandelwa yiSK Hynix (13%) kunye neMicron (5%). Njengoko imemori ehlanganisiweyo ye-3D iqhubeka nokukhula kwaye iimveliso ezintsha ziqaliswa, izabelo zemarike zaba bavelisi kulindeleke ukuba zikhule kakuhle. I-Intel ilandela ngokusondeleyo ngesabelo se-6%.
Abavelisi abaphambili be-OSAT abafana ne-Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), iSiliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), i-JCET, i-Amkor, kunye ne-TF basabandakanyeka kakhulu kwimisebenzi yokugqibela yokupakisha nokuvavanya. Bazama ukufumana isabelo semarike ngezisombululo zokupakisha eziphezulu ezisekelwe kwi-ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) kunye ne-mold interposer. Enye into ebalulekileyo kukusebenzisana kwabo neenkampani eziphambili zokusekwa kunye nabavelisi bezixhobo ezidibeneyo (ii-IDM) ukuqinisekisa ukuba bathatha inxaxheba kule misebenzi.
Namhlanje, ukuphunyezwa kokupakisha okuphezulu kuxhomekeke ngakumbi kubuchwepheshe be-front-end (FE), kunye ne-hybrid bonding evela njengesiqhelo esitsha. I-BESI, ngokusebenzisana kwayo ne-AMAT, idlala indima ebalulekileyo kule ndlela intsha, ibonelela ngezixhobo kwiinkampani ezinkulu ezifana ne-TSMC, i-Intel, kunye ne-Samsung, zonke ezikhuphisana ngokubangamela kwimarike. Abanye ababoneleli bezixhobo, njenge-ASMPT, i-EVG, i-SET, kunye ne-Suiss MicroTech, kunye ne-Shibaura kunye ne-TEL, nabo bayinxalenye ebalulekileyo yekhonkco lokubonelela.
Umkhwa omkhulu wetekhnoloji kuzo zonke iiplatifomu zokupakisha ezisebenzayo, nokuba zeziphi na iintlobo, kukunciphisa i-interconnect pitch—umkhwa onxulunyaniswa ne-through-silicon vias (TSVs), ii-TMV, ii-microbumps, kwanokubopha okuxutyiweyo, okukugqibela okuvele njengesisombululo esiphambili. Ngaphezu koko, i-via diameters kunye nobukhulu be-wafer nazo kulindeleke ukuba zinciphe.
Olu phuculo lobuchwepheshe lubalulekile ekudibaniseni iitships kunye neechipsets ezintsonkothileyo ukuxhasa ukucutshungulwa kwedatha ngokukhawuleza kunye nokudluliselwa kwayo ngelixa kuqinisekiswa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla okuphantsi kunye nelahleko, ekugqibeleni kuvumela ukuhlanganiswa okuphezulu koxinano kunye ne-bandwidth kwizizukulwana zemveliso ezizayo.
I-3D SoC hybrid bonding ibonakala iyintsika yetekhnoloji ephambili yokupakisha okuphucukileyo kwesizukulwana esilandelayo, njengoko ivumela ii-interconnect pitches ezincinci ngelixa inyusa indawo yonke yomphezulu weSoC. Oku kwenza kube nokwenzeka okufana nokufaka ii-chipsets kwi-SoC die ehlukanisiweyo, ngaloo ndlela kuvumela ukupakisha okudibeneyo okungafaniyo. I-TSMC, ngetekhnoloji yayo ye-3D Fabric, ibe yinkokeli kwi-3D SoIC packaging esebenzisa i-hybrid bonding. Ngaphezu koko, ukuhlanganiswa kwe-chip-to-wafer kulindeleke ukuba kuqale ngenani elincinci le-HBM4E 16-layer DRAM stacks.
I-Chipset kunye nokuhlanganiswa okwahlukeneyo zezinye izinto eziphambili eziqhuba ukwamkelwa kweepakeji ze-HEP, kunye neemveliso ezikhoyo ngoku kwimarike ezisebenzisa le ndlela. Umzekelo, i-Intel's Sapphire Rapids isebenzisa i-EMIB, iPonte Vecchio isebenzisa iCo-EMIB, kwaye iMeteor Lake isebenzisa iFoveros. I-AMD ngomnye umthengisi omkhulu oye wasebenzisa le ndlela yetekhnoloji kwiimveliso zayo, ezifana neeprosesa zayo zesizukulwana sesithathu zeRyzen kunye ne-EPYC, kunye noyilo lwe-3D chipset kwi-MI300.
INvidia kulindeleke ukuba ikwamkele olu yilo lwechipset kuthotho lwayo lweBlackwell lwesizukulwana esilandelayo. Njengoko abathengisi abakhulu abafana neIntel, i-AMD, kunye neNvidia sele bebhengezile, iipakethi ezininzi ezibandakanya i-die ehlukanisiweyo okanye ephindaphindwayo kulindeleke ukuba zifumaneke kunyaka ozayo. Ngaphezu koko, le ndlela kulindeleke ukuba isetyenziswe kwizicelo ze-ADAS eziphezulu kwiminyaka ezayo.
Umkhwa oqhelekileyo kukudibanisa amanye amaqonga e-2.5D kunye ne-3D kwiphakheji efanayo, abanye kushishino sele beyibiza ngokuba yiphakheji ye-3.5D. Ke ngoko, silindele ukubona ukuvela kweephakheji ezidibanisa iitships ze-3D SoC, ii-interposer ze-2.5D, iibridges ze-silicon ezifakwe ngaphakathi, kunye nee-optics ezihlanganisiweyo. Amaqonga amatsha okupakisha e-2.5D kunye ne-3D asondele, nto leyo eyandisa ubunzima bokupakisha kwe-HEP.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Agasti-11-2025