Iindaba zeShishini: Ukupakisha okuphucukileyo kuphambili

Utshintsho kwishishini le-semiconductor luyakhawuleza, kwaye ukupakisha okuphucukileyo akuseyonto nje ecingelwayo. Umhlalutyi odumileyo uLu Xingzhi uthe ukuba iinkqubo eziphucukileyo ziziko lamandla kwixesha le-silicon, ngoko ukupakisha okuphucukileyo kuba yinqaba yomda wobukumkani obulandelayo bobuchwepheshe.

Kwiposti yakhe kuFacebook, uLu ubonise ukuba kwiminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo, le ndlela yayingaqondwa kakuhle kwaye yayingahoywa. Nangona kunjalo, namhlanje, itshintshe kancinci ukusuka "kwiSicwangciso B esingesiso esiqhelekileyo" ukuya "kwiSicwangciso A esiqhelekileyo."

Ukuvela kwezixhobo zokupakisha eziphambili njengenqaba yomda wobukumkani obulandelayo bobuchwepheshe akuyonto ingaqhelekanga; sisiphumo esingenakuphepheka samandla amathathu aqhubayo.

Amandla okuqala aqhubayo kukukhula ngamandla ekhompyutha, kodwa inkqubela phambili kwiinkqubo iye yehla. Iitships kufuneka zinqunyulwe, zibekwe ndawonye, ​​kwaye ziphinde zilungiswe. ULu uthe ukuba nje ungafikelela kwi-5nm akuthethi ukuba ungangena ngamandla ekhompyutha ngokuphindwe ka-20. Imida yee-photomasks ithintela indawo yeetships, kwaye ziiChiplets kuphela ezinokudlula kwesi sithintelo, njengoko kubonwa kwiBlackwell kaNvidia.

Amandla esibini aqhubayo zizicelo ezahlukeneyo; iitships azisalungelani ngobukhulu obufanayo. Uyilo lwenkqubo lusiya kwi-modularization. ULu uqaphele ukuba ixesha le-chip enye yokuphatha zonke izicelo liphelile. Uqeqesho lwe-AI, ukwenza izigqibo ngokuzimela, i-edge computing, izixhobo ze-AR—usetyenziso ngalunye lufuna indibaniselwano eyahlukeneyo ye-silicon. Ukupakisha okuphambili kunye neChiplets kunika isisombululo esilinganayo sokuguquguquka nokusebenza kakuhle koyilo.

Into yesithathu eqhubayo kukunyuka kwexabiso lokuthuthwa kwedatha, apho ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kuba yingxaki ephambili. Kwiitships ze-AI, amandla asetyenziswayo ekudluliseleni idatha adla ngokugqitha lawo okusetyenziswa ekubaleni. Umgama kwiipakethe zemveli uye waba ngumqobo ekusebenzeni. Ukupakisha okuphucukileyo kubhala ngokutsha le ngqiqo: ukusondeza idatha kwenza kube nokwenzeka ukuya phambili.

Ukupakisha Okuphambili: Ukukhula Okumangalisayo

Ngokwengxelo ekhutshwe yinkampani yokubonisana iYole Group ngoJulayi kunyaka ophelileyo, iqhutywa ziindlela ze-HPC kunye ne-AI yokuvelisa, ishishini lokupakisha eliphambili kulindeleke ukuba lifikelele kwizinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo (i-CAGR) le-12.9% kwiminyaka emithandathu ezayo. Ngokukodwa, ingeniso iyonke yeshishini kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ukusuka kwi-$39.2 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2023 ukuya kwi-$81.1 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2029 (malunga ne-589.73 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi).

Iinkampani ezinkulu zoshishino, kuquka iTSMC, iIntel, iSamsung, iASE, iAmkor, kunye neJCET, zityala imali eninzi kumandla okupakisha aphezulu, kwaye kuqikelelwa ukuba ziza tyalo-mali olumalunga ne-$11.5 yeebhiliyoni kumashishini azo okupakisha aphezulu ngo-2024.

Igagasi lobukrelekrele bokwenziwa ngokungathandabuzekiyo lizisa amandla amatsha kushishino lokupakisha oluphucukileyo. Uphuhliso lwetekhnoloji yokupakisha ephucukileyo lunokuxhasa ukukhula kwamacandelo ahlukeneyo, kuquka i-elektroniki yabathengi, ikhompyutha esebenza kakhulu, ukugcinwa kwedatha, i-elektroniki yeemoto, kunye nonxibelelwano.

Ngokwezibalo zenkampani, ingeniso evela ekupakisheni okuphucukileyo kwikota yokuqala ka-2024 ifikelele kwi-$10.2 yeebhiliyoni (malunga ne-74.17 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi), nto leyo ebonisa ukwehla kwe-8.1% kwikota nganye, ikakhulu ngenxa yeemeko zexesha lonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, eli nani lisaphezulu kunexesha elifanayo ngo-2023. Kwikota yesibini ka-2024, ingeniso ekupakisheni okuphucukileyo kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kwi-4.6%, ifikelele kwi-$10.7 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi (malunga ne-77.81 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi zeerandi).